Forecasts for the Weeks of February 25 and March 4
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
|
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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| Week of February 25 |
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| February 25 |
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| Chicago Fed National Activity Index |
0.5 |
0.20 |
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| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
4.0 |
5.5 |
4.0 |
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| February 26 |
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| FIFA Home Price Index – December |
0.4 |
0.6 |
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| S&P Case/Shiller Index – December |
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| Twenty City M/M |
-0.2% |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
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| Twenty City M/M – SA |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
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| Twenty City Y/Y |
6.5 |
5.5 |
6.8 |
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| New Home Sales – January |
380K |
366 |
381 |
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| Consumer Confidence Index – February |
59.1 |
58.6 |
61.0 |
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| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
-4 |
-12 |
-3 |
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| February 27 |
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| Durable Goods Orders – January |
-3.5 |
4.3 |
-4.0 |
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| Pending Home Sales – January |
101.7 |
101.7 |
104.8 |
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| February 28 |
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| GDP – Q4 (p) |
0.5% |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
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| GDP Implicit Price Deflator |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
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| PCE |
2.2 |
2.2 |
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| PCE Deflator |
1.2 |
1.2 |
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| PCE Core Deflator |
0.9 |
0.9 |
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| Initial Unemployment Claims |
360K |
362 |
360 |
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| Chicago PMI – February |
54.0 |
55.6 |
55.0 |
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| Kansas City Manufacturing Index |
-2 |
-2 |
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| March 1 |
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| Personal Income – January |
-3.2% |
2.6 |
-2.1 |
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| Personal Spending |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
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| PCE Price Index |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
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| Core PCE Price Index |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
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| Real Personal Spending |
0.1 |
0.2 |
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| PMI Manufacturing Index – February |
55.8 |
55.8 |
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| ISM (Mfg) – February |
51.0 |
53.1 |
52.8 |
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| ISM Prices |
56.5 |
56.5 |
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| Michigan Consumer Sentiment – February (r) |
76.0 |
76.3 |
76.0 |
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| Construction Spending – January |
0.5% |
0.9 |
0.6 |
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| Auto Sales* – February |
15.3M |
15.29 |
15.20 |
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| Car Sales |
7.85 |
7.85 |
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| Truck Sales |
7.45 |
7.44 |
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| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
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| Week of March 4 |
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| March 5 |
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| ISM Services – February |
54.5 |
55.2 |
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| ISM Prices |
58.0 |
58.0 |
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| ISM Business Activity |
55.5 |
56.4 |
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| IDB/TIPP Economci Optimism |
46.0 |
47.3 |
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| March 6 |
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| ADP Employment Report – February |
150 |
192 |
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| Factory Orders – January |
-1.5 |
1.8 |
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| Durable Goods Orders |
-3.0 |
4.3 |
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| Nondurable Goods Orders |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
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| March 7 |
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| International Trade – January |
-$44.5B |
-38.5 |
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| Initial Jobless Claims |
360 |
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| Productivity – Q(4) – revised |
-1.4% |
-2.0 |
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| Unit Labor Cost |
5.1 |
4.5 |
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| Consumer Credit – January |
$13.0B |
14.6 |
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| March 8 |
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| Nonfarm Payrolls – February |
151K |
157 |
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| Private |
161 |
166 |
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| Core Private* |
108 |
146 |
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| Manufacturing |
18 |
28 |
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| Unemployment |
7.9% |
7.9 |
|
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| Average Workweek |
34.3Hr |
34.4 |
|
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| Average Hourly Earnings |
0.1% |
0.2 |
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| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services |
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| Wholesale Inventories – January |
0.4% |
-0.1 |
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| Wholesale Sales |
0.4 |
0.0 |
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| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. | ||||
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in this article is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Commoditiesforexnews.com and author will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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